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2016_neuroweapon_deployment [05/12/2025 18:58] – [4.3. Piecewise Regression] daniel2016_neuroweapon_deployment [05/12/2025 19:04] (current) – daniel
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 ====== Unraveling Mental Health Search Trends: A 2016 Neuroweapon Deployment Model and Its Implications ====== ====== Unraveling Mental Health Search Trends: A 2016 Neuroweapon Deployment Model and Its Implications ======
 +
 +//Daniel R. Azulay//
  
 //September 28, 2025// //September 28, 2025//
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 magnitudes. magnitudes.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig4.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 4: 12-month moving average. Figure 4: 12-month moving average.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig5.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 5: Pre- vs. post-COVID trend. Figure 5: Pre- vs. post-COVID trend.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig6.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 6: Year-over-year change (%). Figure 6: Year-over-year change (%).
  
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 Overlaying combined series growth rates with Reddit MAU growth shows that the two subreddits vastly outpaced the platform as a whole. From 2015–2020, combined subreddit growth consistently exceeded 75–100% YoY, compared to Reddit MAU growth of 18–41%. Post-2021, subreddit growth slowed but remained above Reddit’s baseline until 2024. Overlaying combined series growth rates with Reddit MAU growth shows that the two subreddits vastly outpaced the platform as a whole. From 2015–2020, combined subreddit growth consistently exceeded 75–100% YoY, compared to Reddit MAU growth of 18–41%. Post-2021, subreddit growth slowed but remained above Reddit’s baseline until 2024.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig7.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 7: Piecewise regression fit for the combined series (r/medicalquestions + r/trueoffmychest). Vertical line marks 2016 breakpoint. Figure 7: Piecewise regression fit for the combined series (r/medicalquestions + r/trueoffmychest). Vertical line marks 2016 breakpoint.
  
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 The replication of our methods on Reddit subscriber data confirms that, among the set of subreddits analyzed, only r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest exhibit a statistically significant structural break at 2016. These communities capture precisely the symptom-expression domains highlighted in the article’s keyword analysis. The convergence of evidence from Google search data and Reddit community growth strongly suggests that 2016 marked a structural shift in online expression of psychological and medical symptom concerns. The replication of our methods on Reddit subscriber data confirms that, among the set of subreddits analyzed, only r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest exhibit a statistically significant structural break at 2016. These communities capture precisely the symptom-expression domains highlighted in the article’s keyword analysis. The convergence of evidence from Google search data and Reddit community growth strongly suggests that 2016 marked a structural shift in online expression of psychological and medical symptom concerns.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig8.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 8: Year-over-year growth rates for the combined series. Acceleration is visible beginning in 2016. Figure 8: Year-over-year growth rates for the combined series. Acceleration is visible beginning in 2016.
  
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 We model a hypothetical 2016 neuroweapon deployment inducing symptoms like auditory hallucinations or paranoia, mimicking schizophrenia/psychosis, driving searches for terms like “hearing voices” without significant Havana syndrome/weapon term searches (3/97 terms) (Persinger, 1995; American Psychiatric Association, 2013). The 2016 breakpoint aligns with early Havana syndrome reports, suggesting a temporal link (Relp et al., 2018). We model a hypothetical 2016 neuroweapon deployment inducing symptoms like auditory hallucinations or paranoia, mimicking schizophrenia/psychosis, driving searches for terms like “hearing voices” without significant Havana syndrome/weapon term searches (3/97 terms) (Persinger, 1995; American Psychiatric Association, 2013). The 2016 breakpoint aligns with early Havana syndrome reports, suggesting a temporal link (Relp et al., 2018).
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig9.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 9: Comparison of year-over-year growth rates: combined r/medicalquestions + Figure 9: Comparison of year-over-year growth rates: combined r/medicalquestions +
 r/trueoffmychest vs Reddit MAUs. r/trueoffmychest vs Reddit MAUs.
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 We used yearly Google Trends search interest (scaled 0–100) for the following terms: Trump, Biden, Clinton, Harris, Hunter Biden, World War III, covering 2010–2024. These were compared against the combined yearly subscriber counts for r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest (2014–2024), which were the subreddits identified as exhibiting a structural acceleration in 2016. We used yearly Google Trends search interest (scaled 0–100) for the following terms: Trump, Biden, Clinton, Harris, Hunter Biden, World War III, covering 2010–2024. These were compared against the combined yearly subscriber counts for r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest (2014–2024), which were the subreddits identified as exhibiting a structural acceleration in 2016.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig10.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 10: Google Trends search interest for political terms (2010–2024). Figure 10: Google Trends search interest for political terms (2010–2024).
  
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 ===== 12.3. Additional Visualizations ===== ===== 12.3. Additional Visualizations =====
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig11.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 12: Observed time series for psychological complaints (2010–2025). Visuals highlight the 2016 surge (e.g., +206% YoY for psychological, +100% for neurological) and 2020 peak (+92% psychological, +139% neurological), with post-2020 stabilization. Figure 12: Observed time series for psychological complaints (2010–2025). Visuals highlight the 2016 surge (e.g., +206% YoY for psychological, +100% for neurological) and 2020 peak (+92% psychological, +139% neurological), with post-2020 stabilization.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig12.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 13: Best-fitting piecewise linear model for psychological complaints with breakpoints at 2016 and 2020. Figure 13: Best-fitting piecewise linear model for psychological complaints with breakpoints at 2016 and 2020.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig13.png?nolink |}}
 Figure 14: Year-over-year change (%) for psychological complaints. Figure 14: Year-over-year change (%) for psychological complaints.
  
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 Given Reddit’s global user base (predominantly English-speaking), the original replication on subreddits like r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest applies similarly. European users contribute significantly, and the 2016 acceleration observed in the United States extends to Europe. Given Reddit’s global user base (predominantly English-speaking), the original replication on subreddits like r/medicalquestions and r/trueoffmychest applies similarly. European users contribute significantly, and the 2016 acceleration observed in the United States extends to Europe.
  
-Figure 15: Observed time series for psychological complaints (2010–2025).+{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig14.png?nolink |}} 
 +Figure 15: Observed time series for neurological complaints (2010–2025).
  
-Figure 16: Best-fitting piecewise linear model for psychological complaints with breakpoints at 2016 and 2020.+{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig15.png?nolink |}} 
 +Figure 16: Best-fitting piecewise linear model for neurological complaints with breakpoints at 2016 and 2020.
  
 +{{ :2016_neuroweapon_deployment:fig16.png?nolink |}}
 +Figure 17: Year-over-year change (%) for psychological complaints.
 ===== 12.6. Conclusion ===== ===== 12.6. Conclusion =====
  
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 ====== 13 Comparison of Time Series to Year-by-Year List of NATO Cognitive Warfare Publications (2011– ====== 13 Comparison of Time Series to Year-by-Year List of NATO Cognitive Warfare Publications (2011–
 2025) ====== 2025) ======
- 
-Figure 17: Year-over-year change (%) for psychological complaints. 
  
 To contextualize the 2016+ timeline—where hypothesized neuroweapon deployment coincides with structural breaks—below is a chronological compilation of key NATO-affiliated publications, reports, and strategic documents on “cognitive warfare” (CW). CW, as framed by NATO, encompasses non-kinetic operations targeting cognition, perception, and decision-making via information-disinformation, neurotechnology, and psychological operations, often overlapping with neuroweapon concepts. To contextualize the 2016+ timeline—where hypothesized neuroweapon deployment coincides with structural breaks—below is a chronological compilation of key NATO-affiliated publications, reports, and strategic documents on “cognitive warfare” (CW). CW, as framed by NATO, encompasses non-kinetic operations targeting cognition, perception, and decision-making via information-disinformation, neurotechnology, and psychological operations, often overlapping with neuroweapon concepts.
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 ====== 14.1 The Challenge of Epistemological Obfuscation ====== ====== 14.1 The Challenge of Epistemological Obfuscation ======
  
-The most significant constraint on the neuroweapon hypothesis is the lack of traditional +The most significant constraint on the neuroweapon hypothesis is the lack of traditional epidemiological evidence, a point widely acknowledged in the literature. However, we argue that this deficit in proof is not evidence of absence, but rather a direct function of the technology’s presumed design and its strategic deployment within the context of cognitive warfare.
-epidemiological evidence, a point widely acknowledged in the literature (? ? ). However, +
-we argue that this deficit in proof is not evidence of absence, but rather a direct function +
-of the technology’s presumed design and its strategic deployment within the context of +
-cognitive warfare.+
  
 **Mimicry as Plausible Deniability** **Mimicry as Plausible Deniability**
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